By looking at this portion of the model, Zhang suggests that the errors occur because of differences in the initial steering level winds in the tropics that Sandy was embedded in, instead of a mid-latitude trough - an area of relatively low atmospheric pressure - ahead of Sandy's path. 26, when 10 of the predictions suggested that Sandy would not make landfall at all.
This approach was able to isolate uncertainties in the model initial conditions, which are most prevalent on Oct. To analyze the Hurricane Sandy forecast data, the researchers divided the 60 runs into groups - good, fair and poor. The program runs on NOAA's dedicated computer, and the analysis was done on the Texas Advanced Computing Center computer because of the enormity of data collected. The WRF-EnKF model also runs 60 storm predictions simultaneously as an ensemble, each with slightly differing initial conditions. "We also had accurate predictions of Sandy's intensity." "Our model predicted storm paths with 100-km - 50-mile - accuracy four to five days ahead of landfall for Hurricane Sandy," said Zhang. Besides the ability to effectively assimilate real-time Doppler radar information, the WRF-EnKF model also includes high-resolution cloud-permitting grids, which allow for the existence of individual clouds in the model. The researchers compared The WRF-EnKF predictions to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). 21 and the Doppler radar data analyzed covers Oct. 29, 2012, the analysis and forecast system began tracking on Oct. While Sandy made landfall on the New Jersey coast on the evening of Oct. Munsell, graduate student in meteorology, used The Pennsylvania State University real-time convection-permitting hurricane analysis and forecasting system (WRF-EnKF) to analyze Hurricane Sandy. "Our predictions were comparable to or better than those made by operational global models." "For this particular study aircraft-based Doppler radar information was ingested into the system," said Fuqing Zhang, professor of meteorology, Penn State. This system also can identify the sources of forecast uncertainty. A real-time hurricane analysis and prediction system that effectively incorporates airborne Doppler radar information may accurately track the path, intensity and wind force in a hurricane, according to Penn State meteorologists.
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